Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,275
2 New Jersey 19,127
3 Rhode Island 15,675
4 Massachusetts 15,612
5 District of Columbia 14,350
6 Connecticut 12,877
7 Louisiana 11,312
8 Delaware 11,182
9 Illinois 11,050
10 Maryland 10,905
11 Nebraska 9,419
12 Iowa 8,525
13 Arizona 8,271
14 Mississippi 7,870
15 South Dakota 7,255
16 Virginia 6,972
17 Michigan 6,880
18 Pennsylvania 6,856
19 Indiana 6,574
20 Alabama 6,539
21 Georgia 6,243
22 Minnesota 5,992
23 Utah 5,899
24 Arkansas 5,757
25 South Carolina 5,418
26 Colorado 5,407
27 Tennessee 5,391
28 North Carolina 5,364
29 New Mexico 5,241
30 Florida 5,075
31 California 4,957
32 Nevada 4,694
33 Texas 4,528
34 Kansas 4,500
35 Wisconsin 4,452
36 North Dakota 4,422
37 Washington 4,123
38 New Hampshire 4,117
39 Ohio 4,000
40 Kentucky 3,250
41 Missouri 3,173
42 Oklahoma 2,908
43 Idaho 2,602
44 Maine 2,244
45 Wyoming 2,215
46 Puerto Rico 2,135
47 Vermont 1,897
48 Oregon 1,766
49 West Virginia 1,466
50 Alaska 1,265
51 Montana 716
52 Hawaii 579

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 345
2 Mississippi 269
3 South Carolina 207
4 Arkansas 200
5 Louisiana 193
6 Texas 188
7 Florida 181
8 Georgia 150
9 California 144
10 Utah 140
11 Alabama 138
12 Nevada 132
13 Idaho 116
14 North Carolina 108
15 Tennessee 102
16 Kansas 97
17 Iowa 92
18 Rhode Island 84
19 Oklahoma 83
20 Nebraska 70
21 Washington 70
22 New Mexico 67
23 Virginia 59
24 Wisconsin 57
25 Maryland 56
26 Ohio 55
27 District of Columbia 51
28 Minnesota 50
29 Missouri 50
30 Illinois 49
31 Wyoming 48
32 Pennsylvania 45
33 South Dakota 45
34 Kentucky 44
35 Delaware 39
36 Oregon 39
37 Indiana 37
38 Colorado 35
39 North Dakota 33
40 Alaska 30
41 Puerto Rico 30
42 New York 29
43 New Jersey 28
44 Michigan 27
45 Massachusetts 26
46 Montana 15
47 West Virginia 15
48 Connecticut 14
49 Maine 14
50 New Hampshire 13
51 Vermont 13
52 Hawaii 4

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,593
2 New Jersey 1,463
3 Connecticut 1,202
4 Massachusetts 1,151
5 Rhode Island 860
6 District of Columbia 766
7 Louisiana 678
8 Michigan 612
9 Illinois 551
10 Delaware 518
11 Maryland 514
12 Pennsylvania 513
13 Indiana 382
14 Mississippi 339
15 Colorado 289
16 New Hampshire 255
17 Minnesota 253
18 Georgia 250
19 Ohio 235
20 New Mexico 228
21 Iowa 219
22 Arizona 201
23 Virginia 194
24 Alabama 181
25 Washington 169
26 Missouri 163
27 Nevada 160
28 Florida 152
29 California 144
30 Nebraska 135
31 South Carolina 132
32 Wisconsin 130
33 Kentucky 125
34 North Carolina 123
35 North Dakota 112
36 Oklahoma 94
37 South Dakota 94
38 Kansas 89
39 Vermont 89
40 Tennessee 80
41 Arkansas 79
42 Texas 79
43 Maine 76
44 West Virginia 51
45 Idaho 50
46 Utah 50
47 Oregon 46
48 Puerto Rico 46
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 19
51 Alaska 13
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Delaware 23
2 Mississippi 7
3 Arizona 5
4 Rhode Island 5
5 New Jersey 4
6 Alabama 3
7 District of Columbia 3
8 Illinois 3
9 Louisiana 3
10 Massachusetts 3
11 Connecticut 2
12 Maryland 2
13 New York 2
14 Pennsylvania 2
15 Arkansas 1
16 California 1
17 Colorado 1
18 Florida 1
19 Georgia 1
20 Indiana 1
21 Kentucky 1
22 Minnesota 1
23 Missouri 1
24 Nebraska 1
25 New Hampshire 1
26 New Mexico 1
27 North Carolina 1
28 North Dakota 1
29 Ohio 1
30 South Carolina 1
31 South Dakota 1
32 Tennessee 1
33 Texas 1
34 Virginia 1
35 Washington 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Hawaii 0
39 Idaho 0
40 Iowa 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Maine 0
43 Michigan 0
44 Montana 0
45 Nevada 0
46 Oklahoma 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 130,184 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,347 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 87,786 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 85,372 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 79,545 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 12,108 225 92
Richland South Carolina 6,927 535 82
Orange California 3,486 1117 64
York South Carolina 3,253 1170 62
Pierce Washington 2,953 1274 59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,391 5 99
Richland South Carolina 192 664 78
Davidson Tennessee 147 790 74
Pierce Washington 106 972 69
Orange California 94 1040 66
York South Carolina 39 1514 51

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons